Modeling Past, Present, and Future Urban Growth Impacts on Primary Agricultural Land in Greater Irbid Municipality, Jordan Using SLEUTH (1972–2050)

Urban expansion and loss of primarily agricultural land are two the challenges facing Jordan. Located in most productive area Jordan, Greater Irbid Municipality (GIM) uncontrolled urban growth has posed a grand challenge both sustaining its prime croplands developing comprehensive planning strategies. This study investigated for GIM from 1972–2050 denoted negative consequences amalgamation process 2001 on farmland loss. The aim is to unfold track historical use/cover changes forecast these future using modified SLEUTH-3r model. accuracy prediction results was assessed three different sites between 2015 2020. In 43 years built-up increased 29.2 km2 1972 71 2015. By 2050, would increase 107 km2. overall rate increase, however, showed decline across period, with periods 1990–2000 2000–2015 having highest areas at 68.6 41.4%, respectively. While 178 207 2000, it decreased 195 continue decrease 188 by 2050. district-level analysis shows that 2000–2015, majority districts exhibited an twice 1990–2000. net change agriculture show 1990 9 positive gain while rest land. From 2000 2015, four Naser, Nozha, Rawdah, Hashmyah completely lost their urbanization. Idoon Boshra will likely lose more than half high-quality seeks utilize spatially explicit model support sustainable policies use through forecasting. implications this confirm worldwide urbanization impacts losing outskirts food production security. calls urgent actions adopt compact policy no new added development as what available now exceeds needed 2050 accommodate GIM.